As the Russia-Ukraine war enters another critical phase, the past two weeks have seen a fragile push for peace overshadowed by renewed military aggression. With international mediators scrambling to secure a ceasefire and both sides digging in, the situation remains as volatile as ever.
Peace Plan progress stalls
The Ukrainian Peace Plan, a 10-point framework first outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2023, continues to be a cornerstone of diplomatic efforts.
The plan calls for the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, and robust security guarantees to prevent future aggression.
On March 11, 2025, a breakthrough seemed imminent when Ukraine, in a joint statement with the United States, signaled its openness to a US -proposed 30-day ceasefire during talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The US sweetened the deal by lifting its pause on military aid and intelligence sharing, a move hailed by Kyiv as a lifeline.
Russia’s response came two days later, on March 13, when President Vladimir Putin expressed conditional support for the ceasefire, hinting at a willingness to pause attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure—a tactic that has crippled civilian life this winter.
However, Mr. Putin’s caveats quickly dampened optimism.
In a televised address, he insisted that any truce must not allow Ukraine to regroup militarily and that encircled Ukrainian troops accused of ‘crimes against civilians’ would not be granted amnesty. These terms, widely seen as non-starters for Kyiv, have cast doubt on the ceasefire’s viability.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speaking at a summit of European leaders on March 15, urged the international community to ‘keep the pressure’ on Mr. Putin to commit fully to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Mr. Zelenskyy has doubled down on his demand for ironclad security guarantees, warning on March 15 that Russia is massing forces near the eastern Sumy region—an ominous sign of intent to escalate rather than de-escalate.
A Surge in attacks
While diplomats negotiate, the battlefield tells a grimmer story. On the night of March 10-11, Russia faced what its Defense Ministry called the largest Ukrainian drone assault of the war, with 337 drones shot down across 10 Russian regions. The attack, which Kyiv has not officially claimed, signaled Ukraine’s determination to strike deep into Russian territory, even as it entertains peace talks.
Russia retaliated swiftly. On March 17, Odesa, Ukraine’s vital Black Sea port, endured a ‘massive’ drone barrage, injuring at least three civilians, including a young girl, according to presidential aide Andriy Yermak. Local reports described the city as ‘on fire,’ with civilian infrastructure bearing the brunt. Just days earlier, on March 12, Russian airstrikes rocked Kyiv and Kharkiv, hours after Ukraine’s ceasefire overture—a stark reminder of Moscow’s willingness to flex its military muscle amid negotiations.
On the Ukrainian side, forces have held firm against Russian advances along a 2,000-kilometer frontline. Putin claimed on March 13 that his troops are gaining ground, particularly in the east, but independent analysts note that gains have been incremental and costly, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough.
International response and next steps
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has taken a lead role in brokering the ceasefire, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio shuttling between stakeholders. Mr. Trump’s March 18 phone call with his Russian counterpart secured a partial concession—a 30-day halt to energy infrastructure strikes—but fell short of a broader truce.
European allies, meanwhile, are stepping up. The UK hosted military leaders from 26 nations on March 17 to discuss a potential peacekeeping force, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy insisting that ‘Putin cannot break a deal without hard security guarantees.’
